Flexibility Baselining Research
The Flexibility Baselining Research is a report that explores and reviews different baselining methods used globally for modelling flexibility demand response.
Intro
Much of the current focus in Aotearoa’s flexibility sector has been on the operational side, such as setting up systems, integrating Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems (DERMS), aligning communication protocols, and building collaboration around electrification.
However, there’s been less attention on how to measure, validate, calculate and reward the performance of flexibility services by using baselining.
To explore this, Ara Ake has commissioned the Flexibility Baselining Research report from the University of Otago. The goal is to understand which baselining methods are being used in Aotearoa and overseas, and start a conversation about how flexibility services providers can prove deliverability and be rewarded for their services.
Read the report
What is baselining
Baselining is the process of estimating what a participant’s electricity use would have been if they hadn’t responded to a flexibility or demand response event.
This baseline acts as a reference point to measure actual performance, helping track impact, evaluate behaviour change, and decide if a reward is earned.
Proper baselining methodology is necessary for any program that offers incentives for flexibility services. Without a fair and accurate baseline, it’s hard to know if someone delivered flexibility, or just appeared to. It also helps to address any issues around “double dipping” or gamefication of flexibility markets.
Why this research is important
Measuring these changes accurately isn’t easy and there are many ways to calculate a baseline. Some are more accurate, some are simpler to use, and some are harder to game.
This report reviews a range of these methods, used both locally and by international system operators. It compares them based on:
- Accuracy – minimising the error of the baseline predictions during demand response events
- Simplicity – how complex a baseline method is for the System Operator and participants to understand and implement
- Integrity – how resistant it is to deviations and anomalies
The pros and cons of each method are discussed and recommendations are made for the New Zealand context.
Interested in more Ara Ake projects like this?
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