Foundational Systems Modelling for Bioenergy in Taranaki

Bioenergy innovation has the potential to play a key role in supporting New Zealand’s transition to a low-emissions future. However, realising this potential requires a holistic, region-wide approach to the planning and advancement of Taranaki’s bioenergy economy.

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Project overview

In partnership with Scion, Ara Ake is leading the Foundational Systems Modelling for Bioenergy in Taranaki research. Ara Ake has commissioned this research to build a detailed picture of bioenergy potential in Taranaki through modelling of bioenergy feedstocks, processing and end user opportunities in the region.

This initiative aims to help the region develop a cohesive, integrated bioenergy industry by providing the fundamental systems information needed to build strong, co-beneficial commercial cases for sustainable bioenergy development.

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Why this matters

Foundational Systems Modelling for Bioenergy in Taranaki is a collaborative project designed to help remove barriers and best leverage bioenergy opportunity as part of Taranaki’s regional transition.

Key leverages of the research involve:

• Collaboration: The project is being delivered in collaboration with all key stakeholders, including owners of feedstocks, bioenergy innovators, and possible bioenergy users.
• Integration: It’s been designed to reduce region-wide duplication and provide an outline as to the best wholesale commercialisation pathway.
• Location: The project is being conducted in Taranaki as a regional trial, with the aim to roll out similar processes, optimised using Taranaki’s learnings, in other regions around the motu.  

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Our approach

The modelling is being conducted by bioenergy modelling specialists at Scion through updating their New Zealand-wide bioenergy systems model, and applying at a more granular, regional scale. Modelling will cover all possible bioenergy feedstocks available in the region - both gaseous and woody, and will include processing options such as anaerobic digestion (AD), and other processing methods Various modelling runs will occur, that will give out results such as biogas generated, GDP profile, economic rate of returns, for different ways in which Taranaki’s bioeconomy may be developed.

The research is broken up into four stages:

Stage 1 (complete): Understanding what’s available

This was kicked off in March 2025 and included gathering of all publicly available feedstock data to create an inventory of all bioenergy feedstock available in the Taranaki region.

‍Stage 2 (complete): Preparing and understanding the modelling workflow

This data has been prepared to input into Scion’s Taranaki bioenergy model. This is a subset of their National Biofuels Roadmap work (2018) which included a New Zealand-scale model developed to understand bioenergy potential.

Stage 2 included an overview of Scion’s hypothetical ideas for Taranaki bioenergy scenarios, and a range of potential pathways for the region to explore.

‍Stage 3 (ongoing): Mapping the Taranaki bioenergy ecosystem

Through research, one-on-one engagement, and a series of planned workshops, Taranaki’s bioenergy ecosystem is being mapped, including understanding possible processors of the region’s bioenergy feedstocks, and consumers of outputs.

Stage 4 (ongoing and to be finalised in Q1-2 2026): Modelling bioenergy processing and end use scenarios

Scion’s modelling will take a series of inputs, model them using scenarios selected through stakeholder engagement, and provide a series of outputs showing how effective these scenarios would be at efficiently using Taranaki’s bioenergy resource.

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